Ahead of COP28 I heard a radio presenter say, "people are not necessarily seeing the impacts of climate change". This speaks to the challenge in fighting climate change, where the science on its own has not been enough to sway minds, and the severity of the daily impacts climate change generally depend on social economic factors. But to that radio presenter, I would like to point out the regular draughts in East Africa, which are followed by floods, and those water loving mosquitoes that carry malaria. Here in South Africa, we are experiencing more sweltering summers, depleted water reserves, regular freak weather occurrences like the snow in Johannesburg and golf sized hailstorms leaving dents on our cars. The world has had its hottest year on record, those in Europe can attest to 45C degree summers and North America now regularly experiences continent wide wildfires. The impacts of climate change are real and all around us.
But if someone living through a sweltering summer does not feel the effects of climate change, it might point to their relative "resilience". Which brings me to my next point about the climate change debate. The impacts of climate change disproportionately affect communities in poverty-stricken areas and poor countries. Sub-Saharan Africa is essentially a collection of poor communities. Here the impact of climate change is loss of habitat, loss of crop yields, lack of clean water and diminished life prospects. As our leaders’ head to COP28 in the UAE, they must press the developed world (including China) to meet their commitments in helping poorer countries become more resilient.
Linked to climate change is the use of fossil fuels. Burning fossil fuels for energy accounts for most the greenhouse gas emissions that have led to global temperature rises. And yet, fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) are projected to remain part of the world energy mix through 2050. It is a question of energy density and reliability; fossil fuels provide most of the baseload energy needed for industrialisation. They have powered human development for more than a century and will continue to do so for a while longer. But we must transition away from them. It is not just the warming world we have to worry about but also a healthy environment. Anyone who has stood on a hill looking down on Johannesburg can see the afternoon smog for themselves, most folks have seen the smog in Indian and in Chinese cities. The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates that 7 million people a year die prematurely from air pollution and that air pollution affects human fertility. We must transition away from fossil fuels in a gradual and intentional way. However, the transition away from fossil fuels cannot come at the expense of economic growth particularly on a continent that desperately needs it. The numbers are well worn by now, 70% of the African population is under the age of 30, 900 million Africans lack access to clean cooking and 600 million Africans lack electricity, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa. These statistics are appalling considering that by 2050, two in five children born in the world will be in Africa. Without addressing the developmental needs on the African continent, we should brace for demographic changes that could have wide reaching negative consequences. The solution to this energy poverty is a sensible energy mix that incorporates hydrocarbons and boldly embraces renewable energy, particularly solar. The prices of solar have consistently trended downwards and have led to improved electrification on the African continent. This trend must be supported with subsidies, incentives, and preferential lending policies for large-scale renewable energy projects.
Furthermore, certain economic sectors can be readily transitioned to renewable energy. In relatively advanced economies like South Africa, the commercial and residential building sectors are ripe for a transition from fossil fuel-based electricity to solar energy backed by battery backups. In countries with less developed energy infrastructure, the equation might be a bit different but wider electrification can be achieved using solar power, battery backups and distributed generation systems. This would mitigate the immense cost of building an electricity grid from scratch and/or upgrading the existing grids to take on increased energy demands.
Investments in renewable energy must be matched by investments in energy efficiency. Energy efficiency can directly reduce existing energy demand, mitigating energy costs and carbon emissions. Reducing energy demand through energy efficiency means that less capital expenditure is spent on over designed renewable energy solutions and energy storage systems. Simply put, energy efficiency will improve the adoption of renewable energy and reduce the amount of fossil fuels we need. Furthermore, adopting robust energy efficiency and renewable energy policies have the added benefit of modernising our economies while creating jobs for the youth and women in energy auditing, energy management, power factor correction, energy efficiency retrofitting, energy finance, water audits, water efficiency, water management, solar system installation, monitoring and maintenance, and IT.
Do we speak about climate change in sad and depressing ways? Well, I hope that is not how this article is perceived. Climate change is here but the challenge of meeting it is an exciting one with the great promise of transforming our energy systems, our economies, and societies. I hope as delegates meet at COP28; this positive framing is also present. In Africa, we have a chance to remake our economies in ways that lift more people out of poverty, while providing clean sustainable environments for our current and future young ones.
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